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A Novel Approach to Collision Hotspot Identification Accounting for Regression to the Mean and Trend

This paper was produced for the annual Transport Practitioners’ Meeting in 2015.

The authors of the report are Dr Lee Fawcett, Dr Neil Thorpe, Joe Matthews, Fabio Galatioto (all from Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK), Karsten Kremer, Timo Hoffman, and Andre Muench (all from PTV Group, Karlsruhe, Germany).

The primary aim of this paper is to describe the development of a tool for assessing the likelihood of collisions occurring in the future at known road safety hotspots to enable a proactive, rather than reactive, approach to road safety scheme implementation.


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